The findings were presented on 30 September at a European Commission-OECD webinar launching the joint policy brief, 'The EU automotive industry at a crossroads: The implications of structural transformation for employment and skills'. The webinar brought together representatives of the European Commission and OECD with the automotive industry, employers, trade unions and the German government to discuss competitiveness, skills and how to manage restructuring fairly.

IndustriAll Europe General Secretary Judith Kirton-Darling brought the workers’ perspective to the discussion, alongside representatives of the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), Volvo Cars and the German Federal Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. The Commission and OECD presented the findings of the new research.

The research shows the scale of the transformation driven by electrification, digitalisation, changing demand and international competition. It also shows what happens when change is not successfully anticipated and managed.

Workers displaced from automotive jobs after mass layoffs see their earnings fall by 57% in the first year, compared with 43% for displaced service-sector workers. Six years later, earnings remain around 20-25% below those of comparable workers who have kept their jobs. The research finds greater losses for displaced automotive and manufacturing workers than for service-sector workers across all 11 countries examined.

The findings underline a key message from industriAll Europe: a lost quality industrial job cannot simply be assumed to be replaced by an equivalent job elsewhere.

The research also confirms the quality of the jobs at stake. Only 5.8% of workers in automotive manufacturing and supply are low paid, compared with 14.8% across the economy. Collective bargaining coverage is around 85%.

Judith Kirton-Darling said:
“We reject the idea that Europe faces a choice between competitiveness and quality jobs. Quality jobs, skills and industrial know-how are part of European competitiveness.”

Supply chain is the Achilles heel

The research also exposes major inequalities in workers’ access to training and support. Nearly 80% of workers in car manufacturing report significant changes in their working environment. Large manufacturers generally have stronger training systems and social dialogue structures to anticipate and manage change, while smaller suppliers, sales and repair companies have fewer resources.

Among suppliers, around 40% of workers experiencing major workplace change receive no formal training support.

“Your access to a Just Transition cannot depend on whether you happen to work for a multinational OEM or for an SME somewhere in its supply chain. We need to move from an individual-company approach to an ecosystem and territorial approach,” said Judith Kirton-Darling.

Trade unions, employers, regional authorities, employment services and training providers need to identify where employment is changing, where new jobs can be created and what skills will be needed. Crucially, this needs to happen before redundancies are announced.

Skills cannot substitute for industrial policy

The EC-OECD research supports proactive retraining, accessible sectoral training infrastructure and portable qualifications. It also finds that support before workers lose their jobs is likely to be more effective than intervention only after redundancy.

This reinforces industriAll Europe’s longstanding call for anticipation of change. But training alone cannot solve the automotive crisis.

“Skills policy is essential, but you cannot retrain your way out of deindustrialisation. There must be investment and a quality job at the end of the training.”

Europe needs an automotive industrial strategy, not simply an automotive transition strategy. Its objective must be to ensure that the clean cars, batteries, components and technologies of the future are developed and manufactured in Europe with quality European jobs.

This means mobilising investment and demand and strengthening European value chains, including through European-content requirements. Public support must also come with social conditions covering investment, production, quality employment, training, collective bargaining and workers’ rights.

A Just Transition starts before workers lose their jobs

For industriAll Europe, the difference between a fair transition and one that leaves workers and industrial regions behind comes down to three principles: anticipation, participation and alternatives.

Workers and their representatives need information early enough to influence investment and strategic decisions. They need genuine participation through social dialogue and collective bargaining. And redundancy must be the last resort, after investment, retraining, redeployment, diversification and other negotiated alternatives have been explored.

IndustriAll Europe therefore continues to call for a binding European framework for the anticipation and management of change, including mechanisms to avoid forced redundancies while negotiated solutions are developed.

Judith Kirton-Darling said:

“A Just Transition starts before the redundancy announcement, not afterwards. Workers cannot simply be presented with decisions taken elsewhere and then asked how to manage their consequences. The people who built these companies and possess their industrial know-how need a real voice in their future.”

The EC-OECD evidence strengthens the case for this approach. Preventing unnecessary displacement and providing support early are not only questions of fairness. Given the severe and persistent consequences of automotive job loss, they are an economic necessity.

For industriAll Europe, the challenge is therefore bigger than managing the social consequences of restructuring after the event. Europe needs an industrial policy capable of shaping the transformation itself.

As Judith Kirton-Darling concluded:

“The challenge is not simply to have more electric vehicles on European roads. The challenge is to ensure that the clean vehicles, batteries and technologies of tomorrow are developed and manufactured in Europe by workers with good jobs. Make the Green Deal a deal with Europe’s workers too.”